Cleaning the Bank

One of my first posts in PVSAH dealt largely with throwing a wet blanket over the long-term investment craze in Wrath commodities like Saronite Ore and Abyss Crystals and such. As I went to collect my proceeds from selling stacks of Cobalt Bars for 300g today, it occurred to me that I should perhaps revisit the advice.

 

(12.1g per Saronite bar, 3.66g per two ore)

(13g per Cobalt Bar, ~1.1g per ore)

First, just to get it out of the way: go check your bank. I did not mean to stockpile 15 stacks of Cobalt Bars to sell later, it just sort of happened that way on my rarely used Blacksmith alt. Every stick of non-BoP debris in your bank has a constantly fluctuating gold value attached to it, and it certainly can pay to reevaluate how important it is for you to have, say, 2000 Deviate Fish (selling at 13g each on Auch) taking up space. Ironically, I was cleaning the bank out to make room for all the Pyrite Ore I have been accumulating for less than 70g a stack.

Secondly... I do not really feel I made the wrong call here. Time Horizons are an important concept when it comes to investment, and I guarantee that there were people playing three months ago that are not playing today. But let's ignore that for a moment and assume you had stockpiled a full guild bank page (98 stacks) of Saronite back then for 11g/stack. Your 1,078g three months ago is now worth... 3,586.8g. Assuming, of course, you can actually release 98 stacks of Saronite Ore into the economic ecosystem without depressing the price.

The real big news here is 4x-10x return I can apparently nab for simply smelting ore. Your 98 stacks of Saronite Ore looks a lot more impressive on paper when it is suddenly at 11,858g in bar-form. But, again, nearly 50 stacks of Saronite Bars? Not likely to all go for 242g a stack.

In any case, I highly suggest going out there and doing what might otherwise seem like a no-brainer, e.g. making sure you aren't sitting on a pile of gold.

For the Hoard!

Cataclysm is out in three days, and if you do not have three guild banks full of Eternals and Saronite Ore and Abyss Crystals and old newspapers/pizza boxes then you may as well submit to a life of poverty and panhandling for the next two years... right?

Not so much.

The concept of investments and speculation in World of Warcraft is fine, but precious little consideration has been given to the concept of time horizons. Most people understand "the flip" where you buy something at 50g and relist it at 100g - that is easy money indeed as you realize the profits immediately with a time horizon of zero. Hoarding Eternals and Saronite Ore and Abyss crystals for sale at potential profit six months (or more!) from now is something else entirely. Will you even be playing WoW six months from now?

No, really, this is a serious question.

Time Horizons
I do not care if you have been playing since WoW Friends & Family alpha, each and every one of us has conditions under which we would no longer find the game worth playing. There are about five people who are the only reason the in-game song and dance continues for me, for example, and if IRL concerns take one or more of them away the whole house of cards will come crashing down, taking all value of gold with it.

Not that I am recommending some hedonistic spending splurge which ends with you living day-to-day and taking Payday Advance loans to cover your repair bills (41g per wipe in Cataclysm, by the way). What I am recommending is that you do a little self-analysis before following "investment" advice from people with obviously longer-term time horizons than you.

Speaking of "investment" in air quotes, allow me to play the other side for the moment. After the jump I will analyze some of the investment advice being given out in preparation of Cataclysm.